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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It often serves as a type of apology. Our apologies we misjudged your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest resurgence wins the award. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or just the greatest shock.

However this year's field is profoundly unique. The group of contenders is remarkably deep. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and recent underperformers improving together. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this wild and fun year, he's competing with multiple other exceptional candidates.

This is how the projected vote could look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Coach of the Year voters adore signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Within an ideal system, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to create magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Almost each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer still for a coach who walked into the organization with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy runs a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Chicago defense currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. He is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. But Johnson comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.

After an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags stumbling again. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He did not. Instead, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the standings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and pairing him with an innovative play-caller might have derailed the season in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off after that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, placing him only one place ahead of peers.

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