🔗 Share this article

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a peace deal developed with US officials could be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will submit the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

Following extensive talks in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict remains uncertain, especially given Russia's lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a complete package of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Security Guarantees and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the United States Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and eight other European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “allied coalition” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring maritime security, potentially by operating inside its territory.”

However, they did not proposing these actions would serve as assurances equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is scant indication that Moscow is near accepting the type of package under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the specifics of the proposals on security assurances. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the issue of land. One proposal involves Kyiv ceding the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while Ukraine wants to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” said Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a national vote. The major impediment is likely to be when the proposals are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his war aims.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement as his aircraft took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the United States,” he added.