Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
